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Or maybe I'm wrong.

I'm not always right. I don't think I'm always right. I am a fallibilist. Anyone could be wrong about anything. These things happen, after all.

Specifically, though, I may be wrong about Jeremy Corbyn and the (polling) direction he's taking Labour in. Though they still favor the Conservatives, the polls are tightening. No one knows which way it might go.

Nate Silver has written a fascinating piece about trying to guess what the numbers mean.

I could live with a Labour victory, slim as the chance may be.
Recent posts

An outsider's view of Jeremy Corbyn, who is--at this instant--listlessly sinking his party's hopes.

I am not against Corbyn's ideas or his bent, but he is hopelessly ineffectual as a national politician and party leader. His ideas aren't all that bad, but his brand is, because he sucks at messaging, and is no better at corralling or convincing his partymates. He and his leadership have a dull a sense of political strategy and tactics. Arguably being right or more compassionate doesn't win you anything outside of school debates.

Supporters say Jeremy Corbin cares. Well, he can care all he likes, deeply and to his very core, but he won't be able to realize any of his ideals without a capable coalition which must be taken seriously, and not laughed out of the room.

Corbyn has faced strong opposition from some of his own party members, the Tories (previously--they are largely unconcerned with him now), and various entrenched interests. I do not suggest he has an easy road. Politics is a rough, dirty business, after all. People are going to be unfair to politicians. They…

Everyone is a magician these days.

One hand distracts, while the other does the work, right? Perhaps. Lines of thought that run roughly, 'X is just a distraction from Y', are interesting.

The person making the claim presumably has followed both X and Y without losing focus, without which it would be harder to convincingly dismiss X.

Y is often a complex series of roughly related items, which itself presumes one can keep track of multiple threads without being distracted.

And, while this is perhaps a fair criticism of cable news (which does tend to obsess over one story per 'cycle'), actual newspapers, news-sites, and TV and radio programs typically cover more than one story in any given iteration.

Yet this odd meme persists. Every day, I see different people saying this, that, or the other thing is merely a distraction from some set of other stuff. Pretty regularly, one person's distraction is another person's story-They-are-trying-to-distract-You-from. If we're not all magicians, fooling e…

Impeaching DJ Trump is a dream.

The idea of getting rid of Trump might make you salivate. It might terrify you, if you're worried about the unpopular, and all-but-unelected theocrat who's next in line. If you are a mainline conservative, maybe the hope helps you sleep at night. How you feel about the prospect probably won't matter too much.

Republicans will almost certainly never vote for it. Even if Democrats (and assorted caucus-member independents) ride a wave election in 2018, they'll still need some Republicans to reach 67 votes in the Senate. You have to get 2/3s of the upper house of Congress to convict the president, even after the House impeaches him with a simple-majority. This is why Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton weren't removed from office, despite both being impeached by the House.

And, if it were to go through, if Trump were impeached, convicted, and removed from office, Pence wouldn't ease up on the environment, the poor, or religious minorities. He'd be better in some ar…

Mid day in Ballard, Seattle:

Late this morning, I went to brunch with my son and my parents at Biscuit and Bean. There is always a line heading into this joint on the weekends, so I'd never been. Turns out they make large, rich, fluffy biscuits and overly salty gravy.

We sat inside to eat. The decor was minimal, its space being mostly filled with people. The tables and chairs belonged outside. Everything felt like it was meant to rush bodies back outside, including the music. Decades old 'adult contemporary' and late '90s boy bands played through a monaural speaker, which sounded like it was made of tin, but was probably just somebody's poorly amplified iPhone. I could not wait to get back outside.

--If I go back, it will be for takeout, sans gravy.--

We left, after far too long for my liking, and walked upon garden lined streets strewn with petals, into downtown Ballard. The sun was just obscured enough for me to be happy to wear a hat. We wandered into Digs, a pleasant and overpriced home dec…